Propuesta de modelo de decisión para optimizar una producción agrícola bajo riego

Abstract

The Management of unregulated water system for multiple uses, may become quite a complicated task, especially when decisions must be made well in advance. In similar situations, deterministic models are often used, working with a “known future”, or “implicitly stochastic” models, in a deterministic way with synthetic generated series. A decision model is presented schematic and conceptually based on a real case of a Brazilian basin. In it is necessary to decide annually the percentage of demand would be covered, in order to avoid economic losses. A decision model was proposed that minimizes risks of economic losses and combines concepts of Decision Theory and linear programming techniques, applicable to the interannual operational planning phase of a basin to supply several irrigation districts.